2012 to begin with wind and snow

   The latest computer model info looks impressive. A strong low pressure system passes through the region as 2011 ends and 2012 begins. The result should be strong winds and periods of snow later today (Saturday) into early New Year's Day. A mix of rain/snow and possibly freezing rain could develop Saturday evening, before the changeover to all snow.  Slippery roads and low visibilities are possible from late Saturday evening into New Year's Day morning. Here's a link to the Twin Cities National Weather Service web site:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/   There you can see the latest advisories and warnings. You can click on your location for forecast details.  If you click on radar and the base reflectivity loop, you can see the most recent hour and a half of Twin Cities NWS radar.
    Hope you have a great 2012!

Does it snow here?

  
   Our weather this holiday season has been great for travelers, but I'll bet that cross-country skiers and kids with new sleds want some snow. It’s strange to see bare ground in the Twin Cities in late December.  Here is what I saw at Lake Harriet this (Wednesday) afternoon:

Runners and walkers were enjoying the sunshine and mild temperatures:

   The ice looked thin on Lake Harriet, and I could see some open water near the middle of the lake.   

    We should see some flakes at times the next few days, but any snow that accumulates could very well melt by New Year’s Day.  If that happens, it will be the first New Year’s Day with less than one inch of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities since 2004.

What a difference a year makes

   Last December was incredibly snowy and temperatures averaged a bit below normal.  In the Twin Cities, we set a new December snowfall record, with a total of 33.6 inches. This December is running about 10 degrees warmer (through Dec. 21) than last December.  Snowflakes have been a rare sight...we've  seen only 5.4 inches of snow so far at MSP airport.
   A careful look at the latest computer models shows little hope of significant flakes over the next few days.  Yes, that means a White Christmas is very unlikely this year.  The last time we didn't have a White Christmas in the Twin Cities was in 2006, so I guess we were kind of due for a brown/tan Christmas.  
   If you need snowcover to get you in the holiday spirit, head to the arrowhead region of northeastern Minnesota...most spots up there have several inches on the ground.  A Minnesota snow depth map is now posted at http://climate.umn.edu/doc/snowmap/snowmap_111222.htm
   Hope you have a great Christmas, and an awesome 2012!

Snowstorm Anniversary

    The biggest December snowstorm in Twin Cities history happened one year ago. It started snowing late on the evening of Friday, December 10th, and continued until late in the evening of Saturday, December 11th. When it was over, a whopping 17.1 inches was the total at MSP Airport, which is the site for official Twin Cities weather records.
    There was plenty of wind too.  Blizzard conditions existed for awhile on Saturday afternoon at MSP, and for much of Saturday over parts of southern and central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. How is a blizzard defined?  The National Weather Service typically issues a blizzard warning when they expect sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below one-quarter of a mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours.
    You can have blizzard conditions with very little new snow…strong winds and extremely low visibility are the key ingredients.  The snowstorm a year ago brought heavy snow plus blizzard conditions to portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin.  You can find more details on the storm at the National Weather Service web site:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mpx/StormReports/10December2010.pdf  and also at the Minnesota State Climatology office site: http://climate.umn.edu/
    On a personal note, the snowstorm was exciting to cover.  I stayed in downtown Minneapolis from Friday afternoon into Sunday afternoon.  We televised 5 consecutive hours of snowstorm coverage on Saturday morning, and we did many special updates and web reports throughout the storm.  By Sunday morning, the big story was the collapse of the Metrodome roof.  I’ll never forget seeing that video for the first time!

Snowfall on December 3-4

    The total snowfall at MSP airport this weekend of December 3-4 was 4.4 inches...4.2 inches of that total fell on Saturday.  Below are some area snow totals, courtesy of the Twin Cities NWS office.  You can see more information about area snow totals at their web site: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
711 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2011

...SNOWFALL TOTALS RECEIVED SO FAR FOR DECEMBER 3RD AND 4TH...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
  5.50   MAPLETON                 MN  BLUE EARTH       0654 AM
  5.30   12 N BRUCE               WI  RUSK             1200 AM
  5.00   RED WING                 MN  DAKOTA           0555 AM
  5.00   FARMINGTON               MN  DAKOTA           0451 AM
  5.00   MAPLEWOOD                MN  RAMSEY           0116 AM
  5.00   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           1140 PM
  5.00   CHETEK                   WI  BARRON           0630 AM
  4.90   3 N CAMERON              WI  BARRON           0955 PM
  4.80   1 SE RED WING            MN  GOODHUE          0847 PM
  4.70   COLFAX                   WI  DUNN             0643 AM
  4.60   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           1110 PM
  4.50   HAUGEN                   WI  BARRON           1010 PM
  4.50   NORTH MANKATO            MN  NICOLLET         1000 PM
  4.40   BLOOMINGTON MSP AIRPORT  MN  HENNEPIN         0600 AM
  4.40   INVER GROVE HEIGHTS      MN  DAKOTA           1200 AM
  4.30   CREDIT RIVER             MN  SCOTT            0654 AM
  4.30   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0645 AM
  4.30   NORTH ST. PAUL           MN  RAMSEY           0431 AM
  4.30   SHAKOPEE                 MN  SCOTT            1100 PM
  4.00   WELLS                    MN  FARIBAULT        0345 AM
  4.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       1115 PM
  3.70   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0100 AM
  3.50   AUGUSTA                  WI  EAU CLAIRE       0800 AM
  3.50   MADELIA                  MN  WATONWAN         0616 AM
  3.40   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0546 AM
  3.30   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0744 PM
  3.20   1 SW EDINA               MN  HENNEPIN         0915 PM
  3.10   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             1130 PM
  3.10   2 N TAINTER LAKE         WI  DUNN             0635 PM
  3.20   CHANHASSEN NWS           MN  CARVER           0600 AM
  3.00   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       1130 PM
  3.00   6 NW RICE LAKE           WI  BARRON           0645 PM
  2.90   JIM FALLS                WI  CHIPPEWA         0913 PM
  2.80   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM
  2.80   3 NE BURNSVILLE          MN  DAKOTA           0845 PM
  2.70   5 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0842 PM
  2.50   1 SSE CHASKA             MN  CARVER           0821 PM
  2.50   HAUGEN                   WI  BARRON           0604 PM
  2.00   PLYMOUTH                 MN  HENNEPIN         0345 AM
  1.70   CHAMPLIN                 MN  HENNEPIN         0159 AM
  1.50   WINTHROP                 MN  SIBLEY           0800 AM
  1.20   LONG LAKE                MN  HENNEPIN         0628 PM
  1.00   GLENCOE                  MN  MCLEOD           0159 AM
  1.00   2 NNW CEDAR              MN  ANOKA            0611 AM

White Christmas?

Meteorologists are used to hearing one question this time of year: "Will we have a White Christmas?"  Some snow is expected this weekend, but Christmas is still about three weeks away.  In weather circles, a "White Christmas" is usually defined as one inch or more of snowcover on Christmas morning.
   The Minnesota State Climatology Office has compiled information on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day snowcover and snowfall.  Their records show that we have a White Christmas in the Twin Cities about 72% of the time.  The last time we did not have a White Christmas in the Twin Cities was 2006.  Last year, our snowcover measured a whopping 19 inches in the Twin Cities on Christmas morning.  You can see Christmas snowcover and snowfall info for the Twin Cities and for many other spots in Minnesota at  http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/white_christmas.htm 
    Comments and suggestions about my blog can be sent to rontrenda@gmail.com  Please indicate whether you would like your comment attached to my blog.   

Driest Autumn

     We  know that it has been extremely dry the past few months. What some people may not know is that this has been an historic dry spell. In the Twin Cities, we have never seen a drier meteorological autumn.   What the heck is a "meteorological autumn"?  Well, if you want 4 seasons of equal length, you take the three warmest months (June, July, August), and call them summer. You take the 3 coolest months (December, January, February), and call them winter. The gaps in between are called spring and autumn.
   This autumn, we've seen only 1.36 inches of precipitation (rainfall plus the water contained in snowfall) at MSP airport, which is the official spot for Twin Cities weather records. Our autumn precip total was an amazing 5.92 inches below normal!  As mentioned earlier, we've never seen a drier autumn in the Twin Cities...based on weather records that go back to 1871. You can get a list of the ten driest autumns, provided by the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, at the MN State Climatology website:  http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/dry_fall_msp_2011.htm 

Thanksgiving Weather

    We’re in for a very mild Thanksgiving.  I’ve looked at many weather models, and this forecast is a slam dunk.  Sometimes you hear and see various forecasts from different media outlets. This time, it won’t matter if you watch Belinda Jensen, Chris Shaffer, or Dave Dahl … you will hear that our Thanksgiving weather will be awesome in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.  Our average high temperature this time of year is in the mid 30s. We should warm into the 50s this Thanksgiving.  A Thanksgiving high of 50 degrees or greater has happened only 9 times in the past 120 years in the Twin Cities, according to the MN State Climatology Office.  Their records also show that we've seen measureable snow on 25 Thanksgivings in the past 120 years.  In 1970 the Twin Cities saw 5 inches of new snow...I bet that messed up some travel plans!  Here's a link to the MN Climatology Office Thanksgiving weather records:  
 http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/thanksgiving_climatology.htm
    Comments and suggestions about my blog can be sent to rontrenda@gmail.com  Please indicate whether you would like your comment attached to my blog.

November 19th Snow Totals

   The total snowfall at MSP airport on Saturday, November 19th was 3.0 inches. Here are some additional snow totals, courtesy of the Twin Cities NWS office:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
143 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAYS SNOWSTORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
----------   ----------------------      --------------------        -------
11.00   2 N SARTELL              MN  STEARNS          0407 PM
11.00   ST STEPHEN               MN  STEARNS          0413 PM
10.50   4 NE ST CLOUD            MN  BENTON           0721 PM
10.20   10 ENE WARMAN            MN  KANABEC          0800 AM
10.00   3 WNW RICE               MN  STEARNS          0700 AM
10.00   3 ESE RICE               MN  BENTON           0700 AM
  9.80   5 NW MORA                MN  KANABEC          0745 PM
  9.00   SARTELL                  MN  STEARNS          0800 PM
  7.80   MORA                     MN  KANABEC          0700 AM
  7.00   BELGRADE                 MN  STEARNS          0157 PM
  7.00   SAUK RAPIDS              MN  BENTON           0343 PM
  7.00   9 N MORA                 MN  KANABEC          0700 AM
  7.00   ALBANY                   MN  STEARNS          0700 AM
  7.00   MILACA                   MN  MILLE LACS       0730 AM
  6.60   7 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         0248 PM
  6.30   2 W FOLEY                MN  BENTON           0537 PM
  6.10   RICE                     MN  BENTON           0700 AM
  6.00   STARBUCK                 MN  POPE             0207 PM
  6.00   MADISON                  MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0800 AM
  5.90   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          1100 PM
                 MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY.
  5.60   MURDOCK                  MN  SWIFT            0332 PM
  5.50   11 NE WARMAN             MN  KANABEC          0630 PM
  4.70   1 NNW COLD SPRING        MN  STEARNS          0600 AM
  4.60   1 W WOODLAND             MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM
  4.00   FOLEY                    MN  BENTON           0500 PM
  4.00   NORTH BRANCH             MN  CHISAGO          0623 PM
  4.00   MELROSE                  MN  STEARNS          0700 AM
  4.00   5 W ST CLOUD             MN  STEARNS          0740 AM
  3.80   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          1159 PM
                 STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AT ST CLOUD AIRPORT
  3.60   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          1036 PM
  3.60   MONTEVIDEO               MN  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM
  3.50   KIMBALL                  MN  STEARNS          0417 PM
  3.50   LITTLE FALLS             MN  MORRISON         0630 AM
  3.50   1 SSE BLOOMINGTON        MN  HENNEPIN         0630 AM
  3.50   3 S RICE LAKE            WI  BARRON           0700 AM
  3.50   2 SE CHETEK              WI  BARRON           0700 AM
  3.40   6 NNE WILLMAR            MN  KANDIYOHI        0600 AM
  3.40   CHASKA                   MN  CARVER           0700 AM
  3.10   4 NE WOODBURY            MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
  3.10   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
  3.00   ISANTI                   MN  ISANTI           0635 PM
  3.00   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0703 PM
  3.00   1 ESE CAMBRIDGE          MN  ISANTI           0755 PM
  3.00   HAUGEN                   WI  BARRON           0811 PM
  3.00   6 NW RICE LAKE           WI  BARRON           1018 PM
  3.00   MONTICELLO               MN  WRIGHT           1028 PM
  3.00   FOREST LAKE              MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
  3.00   3 NE BURNSVILLE          MN  DAKOTA           0700 AM
  3.00   MONTEVIDEO               MN  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM
  3.00   CLEAR LAKE               WI  POLK             0700 AM
  3.00   1 SSW RIVER FALLS        WI  PIERCE           0700 AM
  3.00   3 WNW LADYSMITH          WI  RUSK             0700 AM
  3.00   1 ENE ST MICHAEL         MN  WRIGHT           0800 AM
  3.00   8 SW GRANITE FALLS       MN  YELLOW MEDICINE  0825 AM
  3.00   RICE LAKE                WI  BARRON           0910 AM
  2.80   PRINSBURG                MN  KANDIYOHI        0358 PM
  2.80   BUFFALO                  MN  WRIGHT           0630 AM
  2.80   4 E ST FRANCIS           MN  ANOKA            0700 AM
  2.70   INVER GROVE HEIGHTS      MN  DAKOTA           0700 AM
  2.50   INVER GROVE HEIGHTS      MN  DAKOTA           0537 PM
  2.50   1 ENE RICHFIELD          MN  HENNEPIN         0600 AM
  2.50   1 NNW NORTH ST PAUL      MN  RAMSEY           0630 AM
  2.50   3 N CAMBRIDGE            MN  ISANTI           0700 AM
  2.50   1 WSW LITTLE CANADA      MN  RAMSEY           0700 AM
  2.50   CREDIT RIVER             MN  SCOTT            0735 AM
  2.50   VADNAIS HEIGHTS          MN  RAMSEY           0800 AM
  2.50   ANNANDALE                MN  WRIGHT           1115 AM
  2.40   4 SE MAPLEWOOD           MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
  2.30   SHAKOPEE                 MN  SCOTT            0517 PM
  2.30   LONG PRAIRIE             MN  TODD             1100 PM
  2.30   2 SE ST FRANCIS          MN  ANOKA            0700 AM
  2.30   4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS        MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
  2.20   5 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0600 PM
  2.20   1 W CARVER               MN  CARVER           0700 AM
  2.10   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           0542 PM
  2.00   ROCKFORD                 MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
  2.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM
  1.90   6 NNE BIG LAKE           MN  SHERBURNE        0700 AM
  1.80   1 ESE CHASKA             MN  CARVER           1130 PM
  1.80   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           1159 PM
                 MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE
  1.80   1 NW STACY               MN  CHISAGO          0700 AM
  1.80   2 S PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0700 AM
  1.80   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0755 AM
  1.70   5 SSE OSCEOLA            WI  POLK             0525 PM
  1.70   JORDAN                   MN  SCOTT            0530 AM
  1.70   NW PRESCOTT              WI  PIERCE           0800 AM
  1.50   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0745 PM
  1.50   BLOOMER                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
  1.50   ROBERTS                  WI  ST. CROIX        0800 AM
  1.50   1 NE STILLWATER          MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
  1.40   2 SW MOUND               MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
  1.30   COMFREY                  MN  BROWN            0445 PM
  1.20   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0658 PM
  1.20   HUTCHINSON               MN  MCLEOD           0700 AM
  1.20   1 S HAMPTON              MN  DAKOTA           0700 AM
  1.20   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0755 AM
  1.20   5 S FAIRFAX              MN  NICOLLET         0800 AM
                 MEASURED AT FORT RIDGELY STATE PARK
  1.10   NORTH MANKATO            MN  NICOLLET         0700 AM
  1.00   ORONO                    MN  HENNEPIN         0658 PM
  1.00   GLENCOE                  MN  MCLEOD           1018 PM
  1.00   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0500 AM
  1.00   3 SE NEW ULM             MN  BROWN            0545 AM
  1.00   3 ENE MONTGOMERY         MN  RICE             0600 AM
  1.00   1 SSW LONSDALE           MN  RICE             0600 AM
  1.00   JIM FALLS                WI  CHIPPEWA         0630 AM
  1.00   7 SSE BIRD ISLAND        MN  RENVILLE         0700 AM
  1.00   LONG LAKE                MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
  1.00   1 SSW LONSDALE           MN  RICE             0700 AM
  1.00   CANNON FALLS             MN  GOODHUE          0700 AM
  1.00   SPRINGFIELD              MN  BROWN            0700 AM
  0.80   BROOKLYN CENTER          MN  HENNEPIN         0700 PM
  0.70   1 E OWATONNA             MN  STEELE           0700 AM
  0.70   4 E NERSTRAND            MN  GOODHUE          0800 AM
  0.70   STANLEY                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
  0.50   WINTHROP                 MN  SIBLEY           0607 PM
  0.50   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            0721 PM
  0.50   RED WING                 MN  GOODHUE          0600 AM
  0.50   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0600 AM
  0.50   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           0700 AM
  0.50   OWATONNA                 MN  STEELE           0800 AM

Twin Cities snow

    As the weekend of November 19/20, 2011 approaches, I'm hearing chatter about the possibility of snowflakes. We haven't seen measureable snow in the Twin Cities this autumn, but that may change this weekend.  By the way, measureable snow means one-tenth of an inch or more. 

    I've lived in the Twin Cities my entire life, except for time spent in Madison Wisconsin to earn my meteorology degree.  It still amazes me how surprised some people are when it snows in late October or even in November.  Our earliest measureable snowfall in the Twin Cities was on September 24, 1985, when four-tenths of an inch was observed.  Our earliest one inch or greater snowfall occurred on September 26, 1942.  1.7" was the official tally that day. In case you're wondering, the average date for our first snowfall of one inch or more in the Twin Cities is November 18...based on records going back to 1891. 

   If you want more snowfall statistics for the Twin Cities, you can find a wealth of information on the MN State Climatology web site...here is a link: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/snowmsp.htm   The linked site shows  snow statistics that go back all the way to 1891.  As the note at the bottom of the snow stat page indicates, the most recent 30 year period is typically used by researchers to establish what is "normal".  The 30 year normal for season snowfall in the Twin Cities is 54.0 inches.

Ron Trenda's blog

     Welcome to my blog. Here you will find weather-related comments,  and possibly some occasional forecasts. I have been a broadcast meteorologist and consulting meteorologist in the Twin Cities for more than 30 years.  I've seen record snowfalls, historic rains, and wild temperature swings. This is a great place to be a meteorologist!
   Comments and suggestions about my blog can be sent to rontrenda@gmail.com  Please indicate whether you would like your comment attached to my blog.