Driest Autumn

     We  know that it has been extremely dry the past few months. What some people may not know is that this has been an historic dry spell. In the Twin Cities, we have never seen a drier meteorological autumn.   What the heck is a "meteorological autumn"?  Well, if you want 4 seasons of equal length, you take the three warmest months (June, July, August), and call them summer. You take the 3 coolest months (December, January, February), and call them winter. The gaps in between are called spring and autumn.
   This autumn, we've seen only 1.36 inches of precipitation (rainfall plus the water contained in snowfall) at MSP airport, which is the official spot for Twin Cities weather records. Our autumn precip total was an amazing 5.92 inches below normal!  As mentioned earlier, we've never seen a drier autumn in the Twin Cities...based on weather records that go back to 1871. You can get a list of the ten driest autumns, provided by the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, at the MN State Climatology website:  http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/dry_fall_msp_2011.htm 

Thanksgiving Weather

    We’re in for a very mild Thanksgiving.  I’ve looked at many weather models, and this forecast is a slam dunk.  Sometimes you hear and see various forecasts from different media outlets. This time, it won’t matter if you watch Belinda Jensen, Chris Shaffer, or Dave Dahl … you will hear that our Thanksgiving weather will be awesome in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.  Our average high temperature this time of year is in the mid 30s. We should warm into the 50s this Thanksgiving.  A Thanksgiving high of 50 degrees or greater has happened only 9 times in the past 120 years in the Twin Cities, according to the MN State Climatology Office.  Their records also show that we've seen measureable snow on 25 Thanksgivings in the past 120 years.  In 1970 the Twin Cities saw 5 inches of new snow...I bet that messed up some travel plans!  Here's a link to the MN Climatology Office Thanksgiving weather records:  
 http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/thanksgiving_climatology.htm
    Comments and suggestions about my blog can be sent to rontrenda@gmail.com  Please indicate whether you would like your comment attached to my blog.

November 19th Snow Totals

   The total snowfall at MSP airport on Saturday, November 19th was 3.0 inches. Here are some additional snow totals, courtesy of the Twin Cities NWS office:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
143 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAYS SNOWSTORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
----------   ----------------------      --------------------        -------
11.00   2 N SARTELL              MN  STEARNS          0407 PM
11.00   ST STEPHEN               MN  STEARNS          0413 PM
10.50   4 NE ST CLOUD            MN  BENTON           0721 PM
10.20   10 ENE WARMAN            MN  KANABEC          0800 AM
10.00   3 WNW RICE               MN  STEARNS          0700 AM
10.00   3 ESE RICE               MN  BENTON           0700 AM
  9.80   5 NW MORA                MN  KANABEC          0745 PM
  9.00   SARTELL                  MN  STEARNS          0800 PM
  7.80   MORA                     MN  KANABEC          0700 AM
  7.00   BELGRADE                 MN  STEARNS          0157 PM
  7.00   SAUK RAPIDS              MN  BENTON           0343 PM
  7.00   9 N MORA                 MN  KANABEC          0700 AM
  7.00   ALBANY                   MN  STEARNS          0700 AM
  7.00   MILACA                   MN  MILLE LACS       0730 AM
  6.60   7 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         0248 PM
  6.30   2 W FOLEY                MN  BENTON           0537 PM
  6.10   RICE                     MN  BENTON           0700 AM
  6.00   STARBUCK                 MN  POPE             0207 PM
  6.00   MADISON                  MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0800 AM
  5.90   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          1100 PM
                 MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY.
  5.60   MURDOCK                  MN  SWIFT            0332 PM
  5.50   11 NE WARMAN             MN  KANABEC          0630 PM
  4.70   1 NNW COLD SPRING        MN  STEARNS          0600 AM
  4.60   1 W WOODLAND             MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM
  4.00   FOLEY                    MN  BENTON           0500 PM
  4.00   NORTH BRANCH             MN  CHISAGO          0623 PM
  4.00   MELROSE                  MN  STEARNS          0700 AM
  4.00   5 W ST CLOUD             MN  STEARNS          0740 AM
  3.80   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          1159 PM
                 STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AT ST CLOUD AIRPORT
  3.60   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          1036 PM
  3.60   MONTEVIDEO               MN  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM
  3.50   KIMBALL                  MN  STEARNS          0417 PM
  3.50   LITTLE FALLS             MN  MORRISON         0630 AM
  3.50   1 SSE BLOOMINGTON        MN  HENNEPIN         0630 AM
  3.50   3 S RICE LAKE            WI  BARRON           0700 AM
  3.50   2 SE CHETEK              WI  BARRON           0700 AM
  3.40   6 NNE WILLMAR            MN  KANDIYOHI        0600 AM
  3.40   CHASKA                   MN  CARVER           0700 AM
  3.10   4 NE WOODBURY            MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
  3.10   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
  3.00   ISANTI                   MN  ISANTI           0635 PM
  3.00   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0703 PM
  3.00   1 ESE CAMBRIDGE          MN  ISANTI           0755 PM
  3.00   HAUGEN                   WI  BARRON           0811 PM
  3.00   6 NW RICE LAKE           WI  BARRON           1018 PM
  3.00   MONTICELLO               MN  WRIGHT           1028 PM
  3.00   FOREST LAKE              MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
  3.00   3 NE BURNSVILLE          MN  DAKOTA           0700 AM
  3.00   MONTEVIDEO               MN  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM
  3.00   CLEAR LAKE               WI  POLK             0700 AM
  3.00   1 SSW RIVER FALLS        WI  PIERCE           0700 AM
  3.00   3 WNW LADYSMITH          WI  RUSK             0700 AM
  3.00   1 ENE ST MICHAEL         MN  WRIGHT           0800 AM
  3.00   8 SW GRANITE FALLS       MN  YELLOW MEDICINE  0825 AM
  3.00   RICE LAKE                WI  BARRON           0910 AM
  2.80   PRINSBURG                MN  KANDIYOHI        0358 PM
  2.80   BUFFALO                  MN  WRIGHT           0630 AM
  2.80   4 E ST FRANCIS           MN  ANOKA            0700 AM
  2.70   INVER GROVE HEIGHTS      MN  DAKOTA           0700 AM
  2.50   INVER GROVE HEIGHTS      MN  DAKOTA           0537 PM
  2.50   1 ENE RICHFIELD          MN  HENNEPIN         0600 AM
  2.50   1 NNW NORTH ST PAUL      MN  RAMSEY           0630 AM
  2.50   3 N CAMBRIDGE            MN  ISANTI           0700 AM
  2.50   1 WSW LITTLE CANADA      MN  RAMSEY           0700 AM
  2.50   CREDIT RIVER             MN  SCOTT            0735 AM
  2.50   VADNAIS HEIGHTS          MN  RAMSEY           0800 AM
  2.50   ANNANDALE                MN  WRIGHT           1115 AM
  2.40   4 SE MAPLEWOOD           MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
  2.30   SHAKOPEE                 MN  SCOTT            0517 PM
  2.30   LONG PRAIRIE             MN  TODD             1100 PM
  2.30   2 SE ST FRANCIS          MN  ANOKA            0700 AM
  2.30   4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS        MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
  2.20   5 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0600 PM
  2.20   1 W CARVER               MN  CARVER           0700 AM
  2.10   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           0542 PM
  2.00   ROCKFORD                 MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
  2.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM
  1.90   6 NNE BIG LAKE           MN  SHERBURNE        0700 AM
  1.80   1 ESE CHASKA             MN  CARVER           1130 PM
  1.80   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           1159 PM
                 MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE
  1.80   1 NW STACY               MN  CHISAGO          0700 AM
  1.80   2 S PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0700 AM
  1.80   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0755 AM
  1.70   5 SSE OSCEOLA            WI  POLK             0525 PM
  1.70   JORDAN                   MN  SCOTT            0530 AM
  1.70   NW PRESCOTT              WI  PIERCE           0800 AM
  1.50   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0745 PM
  1.50   BLOOMER                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
  1.50   ROBERTS                  WI  ST. CROIX        0800 AM
  1.50   1 NE STILLWATER          MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
  1.40   2 SW MOUND               MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
  1.30   COMFREY                  MN  BROWN            0445 PM
  1.20   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0658 PM
  1.20   HUTCHINSON               MN  MCLEOD           0700 AM
  1.20   1 S HAMPTON              MN  DAKOTA           0700 AM
  1.20   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0755 AM
  1.20   5 S FAIRFAX              MN  NICOLLET         0800 AM
                 MEASURED AT FORT RIDGELY STATE PARK
  1.10   NORTH MANKATO            MN  NICOLLET         0700 AM
  1.00   ORONO                    MN  HENNEPIN         0658 PM
  1.00   GLENCOE                  MN  MCLEOD           1018 PM
  1.00   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0500 AM
  1.00   3 SE NEW ULM             MN  BROWN            0545 AM
  1.00   3 ENE MONTGOMERY         MN  RICE             0600 AM
  1.00   1 SSW LONSDALE           MN  RICE             0600 AM
  1.00   JIM FALLS                WI  CHIPPEWA         0630 AM
  1.00   7 SSE BIRD ISLAND        MN  RENVILLE         0700 AM
  1.00   LONG LAKE                MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
  1.00   1 SSW LONSDALE           MN  RICE             0700 AM
  1.00   CANNON FALLS             MN  GOODHUE          0700 AM
  1.00   SPRINGFIELD              MN  BROWN            0700 AM
  0.80   BROOKLYN CENTER          MN  HENNEPIN         0700 PM
  0.70   1 E OWATONNA             MN  STEELE           0700 AM
  0.70   4 E NERSTRAND            MN  GOODHUE          0800 AM
  0.70   STANLEY                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
  0.50   WINTHROP                 MN  SIBLEY           0607 PM
  0.50   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            0721 PM
  0.50   RED WING                 MN  GOODHUE          0600 AM
  0.50   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0600 AM
  0.50   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           0700 AM
  0.50   OWATONNA                 MN  STEELE           0800 AM

Twin Cities snow

    As the weekend of November 19/20, 2011 approaches, I'm hearing chatter about the possibility of snowflakes. We haven't seen measureable snow in the Twin Cities this autumn, but that may change this weekend.  By the way, measureable snow means one-tenth of an inch or more. 

    I've lived in the Twin Cities my entire life, except for time spent in Madison Wisconsin to earn my meteorology degree.  It still amazes me how surprised some people are when it snows in late October or even in November.  Our earliest measureable snowfall in the Twin Cities was on September 24, 1985, when four-tenths of an inch was observed.  Our earliest one inch or greater snowfall occurred on September 26, 1942.  1.7" was the official tally that day. In case you're wondering, the average date for our first snowfall of one inch or more in the Twin Cities is November 18...based on records going back to 1891. 

   If you want more snowfall statistics for the Twin Cities, you can find a wealth of information on the MN State Climatology web site...here is a link: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/snowmsp.htm   The linked site shows  snow statistics that go back all the way to 1891.  As the note at the bottom of the snow stat page indicates, the most recent 30 year period is typically used by researchers to establish what is "normal".  The 30 year normal for season snowfall in the Twin Cities is 54.0 inches.

Ron Trenda's blog

     Welcome to my blog. Here you will find weather-related comments,  and possibly some occasional forecasts. I have been a broadcast meteorologist and consulting meteorologist in the Twin Cities for more than 30 years.  I've seen record snowfalls, historic rains, and wild temperature swings. This is a great place to be a meteorologist!
   Comments and suggestions about my blog can be sent to rontrenda@gmail.com  Please indicate whether you would like your comment attached to my blog.