Warm enough for you?

  Temperatures have been above normal this April in the Twin Cities. You might be saying "no way!". Yup, it’s true. Despite cool temperatures last Thursday through Sunday, our average monthly temperature this April is running 3.6 degrees above normal. I think some of us had unreasonable expectations for April warmth after witnessing the warmest March in Twin Cities history. March was an astounding 15.5 degrees above normal. Think of our April temperatures as a “market correction”. Looking ahead, cooler temperatures return for the next few days, but we should still end up with an average monthly temperature at least three degrees above normal.

  The May temperature outlook doesn’t show a trend toward either cool or warm temperatures. Here’s the outlook, from the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service:

  You can see that the best chance of above normal temperatures is over the southern states, with the upper midwest in the “EC” area. Put simply, NWS forecasters think that we have equal chances of above normal or below normal temperatures in May. We’ll see what happens. In the meantime, I’m happy that the grass is green and that golf is an option.

Our lakes need some rain

  It was great to see the rain on Sunday, but we could have used a lot more. Our official tally at MSP airport was just over one-half of an inch. A moderate to severe drought continues through most of the Twin Cities metro area and over much of Minnesota.
  An incredibly dry autumn, followed by limited winter snowfall, produced a significant drop in the water levels of many Minnesota lakes. Here’s a picture of Lake Minnetonka, near Excelsior Commons, taken Monday afternoon.

                             (You can left-click on the photo for a larger view)
 
  Last spring, water covered the sand at this spot, and I remember waves splashing over the lowest rocks on the bank. Based on data from the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District web site MCWD water levels, Lake Minnetonka is more than two feet lower than it was at this time last year.  Here are mid-April Lake Minnetonka water levels over the past four years:

       2012  April 16  928.04  (Feet above sea level)

       2011  April 15  930.11

       2010  April 16  929.29

       2009  April 16  928.94

  The water level was so high last April because we were coming out of a very snowy winter. This winter, we saw only 22.3 inches of snow, less than half of normal. Generous spring rains would help our lake levels recover a bit. If we could schedule the rain to fall at night, followed by daytime sunshine, there would be a lot of smiles.

Isn't March a snowy month?

  On average, March is our second-snowiest month in the Twin Cities. Only January, with an average (1971 through 2000) of 13.5 inches, tops the March average of 10.4 inches. Despite that snowy reputation, we’ve seen very little March snow in three of the past four years. Here are recent March snowfall totals at MSP airport:

Year   March snowfall total
2012     1.3”
2011     8.2”
2010     Zero
2009     1.5”
2008   18.0”

2007   11.0”
2006   20.4”
2005     6.6”
  Of course, it’s hard to get dumpings of snow when temperatures are running well above normal, as they did this March and in March of 2010. March 2012 was an incredible 15.5 degrees above normal, and many records were set: Record temperatures. March of 2010 was 8.9 degrees above normal.  If this keeps up, people might start taking their spring vacations in February!

  Our lack of March snow and persistent mild temperatures led to an early ice-out on area lakes and reports of people mowing their lawns in late March. Yesterday, it looked more like May than early April at Lake of the Isles in Minneapolis:

                          (You can left-click on the photo for a detailed view)

  Although our weather has been very mild, it’s still too early to plant. We could still see frost and/or freezing temperatures, even in the Twin Cities. A check of Twin Cities weather records, that go all the way back to 1872, shows that we have never seen our last 32 degree or colder reading earlier than April 6th. Enjoy the weather, but resist the urge to plant.